Socio-political Instability Under the Effect of COVID-19

The Coronavirus, also known as COVID-19, is spreading across the globe, skepticism and conspiracy theories have become widespread, contesting everything from the true source of the disease to the true extent of the impact caused by it. Today, the most severe influence of the pandemic disease is it’s disruption of the socio-economic structures of all countries across the world. Socio-political instability is no longer illusionary and abstract in the modern days due to various exposure of issues by mass media, and people across the globe, even those under stringent government censorship, have gained awareness, knowledge and understanding of COVID-19’s dangers and impact. Based on the understanding of the disease, different ongoing vicious cycles are formed, and more and more people are affected. From market instability and the housing crisis in Hong Kong to the U.S. election in 2020, COVID-19 has a great impact on almost all aspects.

Market Instability and Housing Crisis

Even though the outbreak of COVID-19 started in December 2019, markets didn’t react immediately since insufficient information about the disease was provided in the early stage. Some parties believed that the People’s Republic of China would be able to quickly prevent the disease from spreading across the globe, while others remained blissfully unaware there was even the threat of a pandemic. However, while COVID-19 was uncontrollable even back then, significant effects were seen from the markets only recently, as the virus has spread globally. The crash then occurred in the final week of February, causing a catastrophe in the market system. In the US,$3.5 trillion was erased for US-listed stocks. In Asia, the Shanghai Composite was down for 3.71%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index dropped 2.42%. COVID-19 wiped out no less than 5 trillion US dollars in share markets value in a week’s time, and the crash ranks in the 5th place following the Great Depression in 1929, the Financial Crisis in 2008, Hitler’s invasion of France and the Black Monday crashes. With the widespread disease across the globe, investors’ fear for their stocks is logically increasing.

For now, the outbreak is still worsening , thus, fears of job losses, infection, social instability and even supply shortages continue to compound. The greatest fear ahead concerns slumping global economic growth under the impact of COVID-19 and the collapse of global supply chains. The OECD has warned that an escalation of the spreading of COVID-19 could cut the current global GDP for 1.5%, and some economies are on the brink of recession. Economists have been using the SARS epidemic in 2003 to put the outbreak of COVID-19 in context. SARS is estimated to have shaved 0.5% to 1% off of China’s growth that year, and it cost the global economy about $40 billion from dealing with infections, lost productivity, disruption in production and other factors. COVID-19 has spread more quickly than SARS, and in a global context, the outbreak has also disrupted various supply chains as governments have taken measures to slow the spread of COVID-19.

U.S. election

The coming US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on 3rd November 2020, and it’s results will affect individuals all across the world. However, with the spread of COVID-19, increasing numbers of US citizens are doubting the feasibility of holding elections: can democracy still continue as usual? If yes, then in what form? Under the effects of COVID-19, the US is facing a dilemma, and there are possibilities for the country to cancel the Democratic and Republican national conventions and campaign rallies. Meanwhile, the procedures in the event the elections continue to take place as scheduled and the virus situation worsens are being deliberated, including the role technology will play, how it will affect social distancing, whether in-person voting is required etc. . Thousands of US citizens have speculated that President Donald Trump might try to cancel the 2020 election. Meanwhile, he also claimed that he declared COVID-19 as a national emergency in order to ‘unleash the full power of the government’ during a press conference. Some citizens are questioning whether Trump would use new rising powers, most likely ‘The Trump Administration’, including Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas’ wife, Ginni Thomas to suspend the voting.

Because of concerns over COVID-19, Louisiana has already postponed the primary election, and Trump has been justifying his political power. Democratic rivals Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders both cancelled rallies in Cleveland, Ohio, and they also cited recommendations from public health officers to avoid assembling large indoor crowds and assemblies. Currently, Trump is facing a critical crisis which threatens his presidency. Unlike the trade conflict with China with its escalation and rising tensions, Trump cannot eliminate COVID-19 by sanctions or measures such as negotiations. Elections are complicated events, which involve massive amounts of human power and input. Meanwhile, the Democratic candidates have criticized the White House’s handling of the outbreak, and different campaigns are starting to more aggressively address the importance of the effect of COVID-19 as a method to demonstrate their leadership and ways of tackling problems to their supporters and voters.

Diplomacy under Coronavirus

Diplomacy keeps interactions among countries all over the world through establishing relationships and cooperations. Within a few weeks after the outbreak of COVID-19, medical masks became one of the most precious objects, and they soon disappeared from shelves and stores. Due to the insufficient supply and excessive demand, medical supplies are currently running under a serious supply shortage. “Mask diplomacy” is engaged in various countries despite the needs for themselves, and the contrast in the global response to COVID-19 has been noticed. China levied the US for its initial supply and offer of medical aid, and it criticized Taiwan for reducing exports of masks to the mainland. However, various organizations and parties in Japan have joined together to help their partners across the East China Sea. The members of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party voted to donate 5000 yen (around 383.5HKD) each from their monthly salaries to assist the battle with COVID-19. The Japanese government built on the efforts, and they also sent thousands of protective garments to Wuhan.

Diplomats are the lubricant in the system that ensures cooperation and collaborations can occur, but COVID-19 has been weakening diplomacy, derailing major summits and leaving diplomats stranded as governments temporarily ban international travelling. As China has been trying to get its COVID-19 outbreak under control, authorities are currently going on the offensive to accuse China of its responsibility for the outbreak. People are getting a glimpse of China’s propaganda, and how it could conceal the truth. Chinese diplomats are currently using Twitter and email, condemning the blame towards China and praise China’s response on tackling the issue. Chinese authorities are claiming that COVID-19 may not have originated in China and its response has brought time for the world, and while all of these are still suspicious and uncertain, more people started speculating about the origins of the disease. Through the outbreak of COVID-19, many aspects of reality have been exposed to the public, and more people started to get involved in this issue due to the increasing number of confirmed cases across the globe.

People may ask, why should we care about the other effects of COVID-19? It’s obvious that COVID-19 has already caused a vicious cycle since it’s outbreak, and as human beings, everyone is affected, and there’s no reason for people not to care about it. Through the effects of COVID-19, it’s seen that the destruction of various systems around the globe are currently unrecoverable, since COVID-19 is still spreading. As COVID-19 isn’t going to be eliminated at the current moment, there will still be vicious cycles generating in different systems, causing further instability to different aspects. From the 3 scenarios above, it’s shown that the effect of COVID-19 is already threatening everyone, both socially and politically. However, as civilians, most people can only suffer because of the crisis, and more and more parties are dragged into the cycle due to the increasing number of confirmed cases across the globe.